China in line to surpass North American power production
Researchers with Frost & Sullivan predict that over the next two decades, traditional developed regions will lose ground in electricity demand to emerging markets with the bulk of the growth coming from India, China and ASEAN.
Frost forecasts China's power generation to exceed that of North America by 2015. Over the current decade, gas will see the highest global growth rate among the major fuels, with nuclear also experiencing strong growth, according to the research.
Dspite some delays after the Fukushima disaster, nuclear power will expand due to the large number of nuclear plants currently under construction, particularly in Asia.
Over the next two decades, non-hydro renewables such as wind, solar PV, CSP, biomass, geothermal and marine, are predicted to substantially expand their share of power generation.
"The growth of coal is not far behind as emerging nations such as China and India rely strongly on this fuel," said Frost & Sullivan Industry Director Harald Thaler. "Nevertheless, growth of coal-fired generation is expected to fall massively during the subsequent decade as developed countries decommission capacity and emerging nations become more diversified in their fuel mix."
Given their status as rapidly developing economies and future economic superpowers, it is not surprising that the share of China and India in global electricity generation is growing across all fuel sources, according to the researchers.
"While both countries are very strong in hydro and wind power, it is in gas and nuclear that these nations will massively outpace developments elsewhere, albeit growing from currently very modest levels," said Thaler.